Everyone is telling you to wait. With mortgage rates hovering between 3.8% and 4.5%, the media still talking about a housing crisis, and the stress test making it harder to qualify, sitting on the sidelines can feel like the only safe bet. But what if the opposite is true? What if this “terrible” market is actually a hidden opportunity for first-time buyers?
As someone who's in the trenches helping families in Surrey, Langley, and White Rock, I see it every day. The current slowdown gives you more power than buyers have had in years—if you know how to use it.
Here's the truth: buying your first home has never been easy. But this moment? It has its own unique advantages if you know where to look.
1. You Have More Choices (and Less Competition)
Let me start with something that might surprise you: despite the scary headlines, you're actually walking into one of the most balanced markets we've seen in years.
Remember the frenzy? The bidding wars, the no-condition offers, the madness? That’s over. The Fraser Valley market has shifted dramatically. Benchmark home prices are down about 5% from last year, and we have more homes for sale than we've seen in a decade.
What does that actually mean for you? More choice, less pressure, and sellers who are actually willing to talk.
Here’s the reality on the ground: only about 9% of listings are selling each month. Homes that would have been snapped up in a weekend two years ago are now sitting for 5-6 weeks. I’ve seen beautiful properties in South Surrey listed around $1.5 million that have been on the market for three months with barely any showings.
This isn't a sign of a crash; it's a sign of a market that's finally breathing again.
2. You Can Actually Negotiate
I know what you’re thinking: "If the market's so slow, maybe I should just wait for prices to drop even more."
It’s a fair question, but here’s where my experience comes in handy. The buyers who try to perfectly time the bottom of the market often miss the forest for the trees. Yes, rates are up. But you’re also shopping in a market where you can take your time. You can ask for an inspection (what a concept!). You can negotiate repairs. You can make an offer without having to waive every condition that protects you.
You’re not behind schedule—you’re being strategic. And that matters more than perfect timing. This is where the current market becomes your biggest ally. With sellers getting frustrated by the lack of action, you have leverage. Use it.
Subject-to-financing clauses? They’re back. In a seller's market, they were deal-killers. Today, sellers get it.
Need a longer closing date? Ask for it. It gives you breathing room.
Inspection found some issues? Great. Let’s ask for a credit or a repair. Sellers are more willing to play ball when they don't have ten other offers waiting.
I’ve seen well-prepared buyers negotiate thousands off the price this fall—things that would have been laughed at two years ago.
3. You Can Be Rate-Savvy (and Still Win)
Alright, let's talk about the elephant in the room: mortgage rates. They’re high. There’s no sugarcoating it. View some on ratehub.ca here.
Since 2022, the Bank of Canada has been on a mission to fight inflation with rate hikes. That’s changed the game for borrowing power. What you could afford in 2021 is a different number today.
And then there’s the mortgage stress test. This is where a lot of first-timers get tripped up. Lenders test you at your contract rate plus 2%. So, even with a competitive 4.2% mortgage rate, you have to prove you can handle payments calculated at 6.2%. It’s a tough hurdle, no doubt.
So, Where Are Rates Headed?
The good news is that most economists, and even the Bank of Canada itself, expect rates to continue their slow downward trend. Major banks are forecasting that the BoC's main policy rate could drop to around 2.25% by the end of 2025.
What does this actually mean for you?
For Variable Rates: Because variable-rate mortgages are tied directly to the Bank of Canada's rate, there's a good chance they will slowly decline as well.
For Fixed Rates: These are a bit different, as they're more influenced by the bond market. The forecast here is for a modest drop, but not a dramatic one. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA), for example, thinks 5-year fixed rates might settle around 4.35% by the end of the year.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed. The Bank of Canada is still watching inflation closely. But the general feeling is that we've likely passed the peak of high rates.
But even with rates where they are, it doesn't mean your dream is impossible. It just means you need to be smarter.
Get a Rate Hold: If you're serious, get a rate hold now. It protects you from increases for 90-120 days while you shop.
Look at Credit Unions: BC credit unions can sometimes offer more flexible terms than the big banks, especially if your situation isn't cookie-cutter.
Consider Longer Amortizations: A 30-year amortization (instead of 25) can lower your monthly payment, making it easier to qualify. Yes, you pay more interest over time, but it can be the difference between buying now and waiting years. Try out this calculator to see estimates.
4. You Can Take Advantage of the "Off-Season"
Here’s a little secret most buyers don’t consider: the season you buy in really matters.
Fall and winter are the "off-season" for real estate. Fewer buyers are out there, which means less competition for you. Sellers who list their homes in November or December are usually very motivated. They might be relocating for a job or need to sell for financial reasons.
Plus, welcome to the West Coast! Fall is the perfect time to see how a house really performs in the rain. You can check for drainage issues, leaky gutters, or a damp basement. These aren't deal-breakers; they're negotiation points. Finding out a roof needs $8,000 in repairs gives you leverage.
5. You Can Focus on What Matters: Your Life
So, should you buy now or wait for spring?
Honestly, there’s no crystal ball. Trying to time the market is like trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Prices might soften a bit more. Or, if the Bank of Canada cuts rates, we could see a flood of buyers return, pushing prices right back up.
Here’s what I know after years in this business: if you wait for the "perfect" moment, you might wait forever.
The real question isn't, "Is this the absolute bottom of the market?" The real question is, "Does buying a home right now make sense for my life, my finances, and my long-term goals?" Thankfully, I’ve made it easy for buyers to get a quick assessment through a complimentary strategy buyers call. You can schedule one here.
If you’ve found a place you love, you're financially stable, and you plan to stay for 5+ years, then locking in your housing costs now instead of paying ever-increasing rent might be the smartest move you can make.
Final Thoughts: Confidence Through Preparation
Look, I won't lie—buying your first home when rates are high is tough. The affordability challenges are real.
But prepared buyers succeed in any market. The clients who do their homework, get their financing locked in, and work with a team they trust—they’re the ones who find great homes. They negotiate good deals. They start building equity and a stable future for their families.
High rates don't last forever. But your need for a home is happening right now.
If you're a first-time buyer trying to figure all this out in Surrey, Langley, or White Rock, I'm here to help. Let's sit down, look at your situation, and build a real plan—one based on your goals, not on guessing what the market will do next.
Because the best time to buy your first home isn't when the market is perfect. It's when you're ready.
Let's make it happen.
Evan Bird is a trusted real estate advocate serving the Fraser Valley, bringing unique insights from his background as a firefighter and renovation expert. Whether you're a first-time buyer or looking to upsize, Evan provides dedicated support and local expertise to make your real estate journey stress-free.